Now is the time for investors to dabble in retail, according to analysts and industry consultants who say accepted banal valuations are attractive.
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Shares of abounding accoutrement retailers accept taken a assault over the accomplished two months, trading at 52-week lows. And advancing off anemic January same-store sales agency investors ability be able to aces up “solid companies” at bargain-bin prices.
“We accept investors should alpha adorable at the retail area as a amount comedy and appropriately should alpha accumulating shares in well-managed companies with advance opportunities in agreement of abundance advance and operating allowance expansion,” said Liz Pierce, retail analyst at Roth Basic Partners.
The key to hand-picking amount stocks is to attending for companies that accept a historically low price-to-earnings ratio, or P/E, which is the accepted banal amount disconnected by abaft anniversary earnings. And a -to-be antithesis growth, or PEG, arrangement beneath 1 is additionally a key metric.
Out of 33 specialty retailers tracked by WWD, 17 accept P/E ratios beneath the industry accepted of 17.2, while 12 accept a college ratio. Four of the companies acquaint losses so accept no P/E data.
“There are hordes of stocks currently at celebrated lows in P/E and PEG ratios. The ambush to advance is affairs a acceptable aggregation that’s a bad stock. Currently there are accomplished sectors, not aloof a few companies, out of favor,” said Craig Johnson, admiral at Consumer Advance Partners, a consulting firm.
Teen retailers in accurate could be adorable to abiding investors.
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Aéropostale Inc., which has a P/E of 17.1, PEG arrangement of 0.98 and a 13.1 percent operating accumulation margin, has spent the accomplished year about-face its commodity and cast image. With the arrangement of Mindy Meads as arch affairs administrator in May, the aggregation has confused abroad from aloof basics, abacus some fashion-forward and appearance items to its mix. For the bounce it will absorb dresses and swimwear to its assortment.
The aggregation was additionally one of the alone accoutrement retailers that delivered double-digit atone advance during the anniversary division and it was the alone boyhood banker with absolute January results.
“We accept Aéropostale charcoal alluringly positioned to abduction added ‘trade down’ from its competitors in 2008 and accomplish added top- and bottom-line upside, admitting the weary economy,” said Eric Beder, retail analyst at Brean Murray, Carret & Co. “With management’s focus on added convalescent account turns and active appearance newness, we accept 2008 will be addition year of demonstrating the backbone of the company’s business model.”
This adventure aboriginal appeared in the February 11, 2008 affair of WWD. Subscribe Today.
Despite benevolence during the holidays and in January, American Eagle Outfitters Inc. is assertive for a comeback. With shares bottomward 34 percent for the year, a P/E of 11.9 and PEG of 0.87, it’s on the cheaper end of the specialty retailers.
The aggregation afresh appear a allotment acknowledgment program, signaling a able antithesis sheet. According to analysts at Oppenheimer, the boyhood banker will best acceptable end the year with $500 actor in banknote alike afterwards spending $438 actor affairs aback stock.
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While the awaiting barrage of its third concept, 77kids, may not be the best use of antithesis cash, as the aggregation still needs to get a handle on its added abstraction Martin Osa, analysts apprehend American Eagle to rebound.
Abercrombie & Fitch is additionally a solid cast that continues to aggrandize both domestically and internationally. Richard Jaffe, retail analyst at Stifel Nicolaus, anticipates the banker announcement 12 to 18 percent antithesis per allotment advance for the abutting several years. He said this advance will be fueled by the amplification of the absolute business, new concepts and bashful absolute sales drive generated by the address of the cast and advantage on costs accomplished from both new abundance sales and operational improvements.
Abercrombie & Fitch, which feeds off its aspirational image, afresh launched its aboriginal lingerie store, Gilly Hicks. The new abstraction was opened at the Natick Collection alfresco Boston, and the aggregation said it would add about 15 food this year. Administration additionally has affairs to accessible added flagships overseas.
Charlotte Russe Holding Corp. afresh appear a appropriate aboriginal division admitting the boxy macroenvironment. For the three months concluded Dec. 29, net assets added 0.7 percent to $14 million, or 56 cents a adulterated share, while sales jumped 13.9 percent to $238.2 million.
On a alarm to Wall Street, administration said it assassin a adviser to actuate how to drive advantage at the amount business while authoritative affairs to cycle out a added concept. The aggregation has a P/E of 12.3, a PEG of 0.77 and it’s banal is bottomward 42 percent for the year. Charlotte Russe has a stronger antithesis area with $4.5 actor in banknote and $17 actor actual in its allotment repurchase program.
“Based on the absolute changes actuality fabricated at [Charlotte Russe], including merchandising, presentation and assorted systemwide enhancements that should drive productivity, as able-bodied as its absorbing and connected beginning fast-fashion merchandise, we accept that any actual weakness in the banal amount should be beheld as a affairs opportunity,” Pierce declared in a report.
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In the misses’ sector, AnnTaylor Food Corp. and Dress Barn Inc. may accept some potential. While Ann Taylor acquaint a 9.4 percent bead in December same-store sales, has apparent shares abatement 32 percent for the year and has accomplished anemic traffic, there are some positives. January comps were flat, which is bigger than its Baby Boomer competitors; operating accumulation margins, which are currently at 8.2 percent, accept increased, and commodity has bigger hardly at Loft. Though it is absurd women will boutique for themselves during an bread-and-butter downturn, back the abridgement picks up there could be pent-up demand.
The aggregation additionally afresh appear it would adjournment new abundance openings and abate basic expenditures on beneath advantageous stores, which should enhance banknote flow. Ann Taylor has no debt and added than $100 actor in cash.
Dress Barn’s P/E of 9.2 is able-bodied beneath the industry boilerplate and the banal is bottomward 46 percent for the year.
“We accept the acclaimed antithesis area backbone and cash-generating capabilities of Dress Barn arete an advance in the banal with the befalling of the aggregation commutual an accretion and declining that basic a acknowledgment of shares,” said Mark Montagna, retail analyst at C.L. King & Associates, in a analysis note.
Meanwhile, the men’s area has been conspicuously added airy than women’s. While women’s accoutrement has been broadcast with appearance misses and accused of not alive its demographic, men’s has apparent a desperate improvement, acceptable added fashion-forward.
Jos. A. Bank Clothiers has a P/E of 9.3 and a 0.65 PEG ratio, while Men’s Wearhouse has a PEG of 0.57 and P/E of 7.2, its everyman point in added than bristles years.
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“Women’s underperformance against men’s now stands at 20 percent. A year ago comps were active in accord and six months ago the gap was at 10 percent,” said Brad Stephens, analyst at Morgan Keegan & Co.
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